It shifts where the rain falls for a season. In strong events India, Southeast Asia, eastern Australia, southern Africa, Central America and Brazil’s centre-north typically see less rain and more heat, while southern Brazil, the Pampas, East Africa’s short rains, the southern United States and the Peru-Ecuador coast typically see more. Crop stress, pests, diseases and the demand for inputs move with it.

The current outlook puts a greater than 90% chance on a very strong event through winter 2026-27, and a 75% chance on a historic one in October to December. The strength selector lets you read every region at moderate, strong and historic.

The warm Pacific shifts the rain belts: the subtropics of South America sit under more storms while the tropics north of them get less. In 2023-24 Mato Grosso lost soybean to heat and dry spells while Rio Grande do Sul flooded.

No, the direction is reliable but the size is not. In 2015 a warm western Indian Ocean partly offset the signal and India’s monsoon still finished 14% below its long-period average, near the low end of a typical strong event. That is exactly what the confidence grade next to each region captures.

Pick the phase and strength, read the playbook per region, and reallocate: push fungicides and adjuvants where the season is wet, biostimulants, insecticides and drought-tolerant seed where it is dry, and time the message to the months shown. The copy button gives distributors the line.

For India, Pakistan and the Philippines the page shows the national seasonal outlook for the months it covers; the typical pattern of past events stays available for the same region. Every other region shows the typical pattern at the strength you pick. An outlook is a category, below normal or near normal, mapped to a percent by the band it names: under 85% of the long-period average reads as 25% below, 88 to 112% reads as normal.

Anomalies come from the official seasonal outlook and published analyses of past seasons; crop months from the GeoPard Global Crop Calendar. Nothing you upload leaves your browser: there is no upload here, no account and no tracking of what you select beyond anonymous page analytics.